The total number of sheep in New Zealand decreased 0.8 percent (by 199,000 head) to an estimated 25.83 million while beef cattle numbers rose 2.5 per cent to 3.98 million, according to Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ)’s annual stock number survey.
The decline in sheep numbers was across both breeding ewes, down 0.5 per cent to 16.48 million, and hoggets, which decreased 0.6 per cent to 8.61 million. An increase in the number of beef cattle was driven largely by more rising two-year-old cattle, particularly in the North Island.
The decline in hogget numbers was most noticeable in Northland-Waikato-Bay of Plenty (6.7 per cent) and Southland (-7.9 per cent), where strong mutton prices encouraged greater levels of trading. Winter and spring 2020 conditions were difficult in some regions, particularly the South Island, leading to destocking of sheep prior to Christmas due to lack of feed. Drought and dry conditions along eastern parts of the country in 2021 led to tight feed conditions for many farmers.
Flooding in Canterbury at the end of May 2021 significantly impacted a number of farms with losses of feed on hand and a shortage of grazing options. The clean-up from this flood event will last for many months for some farmers. It came at the end of a difficult drought and was followed by a cold snap and snowfall.
The lamb crop is expected to be 1.6 per cent higher nationally. B+LNZ Economic Service Chief Economist Andrew Burtt says the modest increase in lamb crop is based on ewe body condition and pregnancy scanning results at the time of surveying farmers, and depends on favourable weather conditions in spring.
“Strong mutton prices have encouraged farmers to sell ewes and hoggets this season and in some areas climatic conditions have forced farmers’ hands. The outlook for beef prices is less certain and although overall beef cattle numbers were up at 30 June, B+LNZ is forecasting a slight decrease in calves from sheep and beef farms this spring.”
The most recent analysis means that since 2000 the total number of sheep in New Zealand has declined by nearly 40 per cent – from 42.3 million to 25.8 million – and the number of beef cattle has decreased by 5 per cent – from 4.2 million to 4.0 million.
Mr Burtt says one other factor B+LNZ is closely monitoring is the effect of sheep and beef farmland being converted to forestry. “We expect there will be a turn-off of capital livestock as land set aside for afforestation is planted – a process that takes some time – and this will be reflected in future livestock decreases.”
Source: Beef + Lamb NZ